Ahora dicen que en los últimos días Million Dollar Baby está generando más simpatías entre los votantes que El aviador. Aprovecho la oportunidad para mantener que el film de Scorsese será el ganador. No son preferencias personales (aprecio a ambos directores, aunque esta vez solo he visto, por ahora, la de Eastwood), sino una mezcla de estadísticas y diplomacia.
Scorsese ha recibido nominaciones al mejor director en cuatro oportunidades sin ganar ninguna, lo que representa uno de los ninguneos más persistentes de la historia de este premio. El único director contemporáneo peor tratado es Robert Altman, con cinco.
A esto hay que sumar que dos de las derrotas de Scorsese fueron especialmente polémicas. La primera fue en 1980, cuando El toro salvaje (Raging Bull) perdió frente a Gente como uno (Ordinary People), de un Robert Redford que entonces apenas era una galancete progre metido a director por primera vez. La otra fue en 2002, cuando Pandillas de New York, con 10 nominaciones, no obtuvo ni un solo premio. Solo hay dos films en la historia del Oscar con un récord más negativo que este: The Turning Point en 1997 y El color púrpura (The Color Purple) en 1985, ambos con once nominaciones; y hay que recordar que Spielberg fue compensado en 1993 con los siete premios a La lista de Schindler.
Eastwood, en tanto, no solo ganó cuatro Oscar por Los imperdonables en 1992, incluyendo película y dirección, sino que el año pasado Río Místico (Mystic River) obtuvo seis nominaciones y se llevó dos Oscar actorales (Sean Penn, Tim Robbins). Otros films de este cineasta -por lo menos, los de su etapa seria- han sido habitualmente bien tratados: Bird ganó un Oscar al mejor sonido y Los puentes de Madison le reportó a Meryl Streep una de sus abundantes nominaciones.
Por último -y esto no es un detalle menor-, el argumento de Million Dollar Baby es difícilmente celebrable en público por el cine industrial estadounidense: no solo carece de un final feliz tradicional, sino que propone la eutanasia clandestina e inconvicta. Hollywood puede aceptar en sus películas predilectas que crímenes y pecados sean exhibidos, aceptados e incluso embellecidos, pero no tolera que no haya castigo.
Mi impresión es que El aviador se llevará varios Oscar. No menos de cuatro, diría, entre ellos los de película y director. Si Scorsese gana, es evidente que Thelma Schoonmaker debería ganar su segundo premio, y también es factible que el film se lleve alguno de los Oscar visuales (dirección artística, fotografía, vestuario) por su reconstrucción de época. El único que está excluido de antemano es DiCaprio.
Quiniela de la 77ma. entrega de los Oscar
27 de febrero de 2005
NOTA: he marcado en negrita las películas que creo con más posibilidades de ganar, y en itálica las que marchan detrás.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Don Cheadle in HOTEL RWANDA (United Artists in association with Lions Gate Entertainment through MGM Distribution Co.)
Johnny Depp in FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax)
Leonardo DiCaprio in THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Clint Eastwood in MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Jamie Foxx in RAY (Universal)
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Alda in THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Thomas Haden Church in SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
Jamie Foxx in COLLATERAL, (DreamWorks and Paramount)
Morgan Freeman in MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Clive Owen in CLOSER (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening in BEING JULIA (Sony Pictures Classics)
Catalina Sandino Moreno in MARIA FULL OF GRACE (HBO Films in association with Fine Line Features)
Imelda Staunton in VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features, Alain Sarde and UK Film Council in association with Inside Track Films)
Hilary Swank in MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Kate Winslet in ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND (Focus Features)
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett in THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Laura Linney in KINSEY (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
Virginia Madsen in SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
Sophie Okonedo in HOTEL RWANDA (United Artists in association with Lions Gate Entertainment through MGM Distribution Co.)
Natalie Portman in CLOSER (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Animated Feature Film of the Year
THE INCREDIBLES (Buena Vista) Brad Bird
SHARK TALE (DreamWorks) Bill Damaschka
SHREK 2 (DreamWorks) Andrew Adamson
Achievement in Art Direction
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Art Direction: Dante Ferretti
Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax)
Art Direction: Gemma Jackson
Set Decoration: Trisha Edwards
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS (Paramount and DreamWorks)
Art Direction: Rick Heinrichs
Set Decoration: Cheryl A. Carasik
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (Warner Bros.)
Art Direction: Anthony Pratt
Set Decoration: Celia Bobak
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT (Warner Independent Pictures)
Art Direction: Aline Bonetto
Achievement in Cinematography
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.) Robert Richardson
HOUSE OF FLYING DAGGERS (Sony Pictures Classics) Zhao Xiaoding
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST (Icon and Newmarket) Caleb Deschanel
THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (Warner Bros.) John Mathieson
A VERY LONG ENGAGEMENT (Warner Independent Pictures) Bruno Delbonnel
Achievement in Costume Design
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.) Sandy Powell
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax) Alexandra Byrne
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS (Paramount and DreamWorks) Colleen Atwood
RAY (Universal) Sharen Davis
TROY (Warner Bros.) Bob Ringwood
Achievement in Directing
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.) Martin Scorsese
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.) Clint Eastwood
RAY (Universal) Taylor Hackford
SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox) Alexander Payne
VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features, Alain Sarde and UK Film Council in association with Inside Track Films) Mike Leigh
Documentary Feature
BORN INTO BROTHELS (THINKFilm)
Ross Kauffman and Zana Brisk
A Red Light Films, Inc. Production
THE STORY OF THE WEEPING CAMEL (THINKFilm)
Luigi Falorni and Byambasuren Davaa
A Hochschule für Fernsehen und Film München Production
SUPER SIZE ME (Roadside Attractions/Samuel Goldwyn Films)
Morgan Spurlock
A Kathbur Productions/The Con Production
TUPAC: RESURRECTION (Paramount)
Lauren Lazin and Karolyn Ali
An MTV - Amaru Entertainment, Inc. Production
TWIST OF FAITH
Kirby Dick and Eddie Schmidt
A Chain Camera Pictures Production
Documentary Short Subject
AUTISM IS A WORLD
Gerardine Wurzburg
A State of the Art Production
THE CHILDREN OF LENINGRADSKY
Hanna Polak and Andrzej Celinski
A Hanna Polak Production
HARDWOOD
Hubert Davis and Erin Faith Young
A Hardwood Pictures and National Film Board of Canada Production
MIGHTY TIMES: THE CHILDREN'S MARCH
Robert Hudson and Bobby Houston
A Tell the Truth Pictures Production
SISTER ROSE'S PASSION
Oren Jacoby and Steve Kalafer
A New Jersey Studios Production
Achievement in Film Editing
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.) Thelma Schoonmaker
COLLATERAL (DreamWorks and Paramount) Jim Miller and Paul Rubell
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax) Matt Chesse
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.) Joel Cox
RAY (Universal) Paul Hirsch
Foreign Language Film of the Year
AS IT IS IN HEAVEN
Sweden
A GF Studios Production
THE CHORUS
France
A Galatée Films/Pathé Renn/France 2 Cinema/Novo Arturo Films/Vega Film AG Production
DOWNFALL
Germany
A Constantin Film Production
THE SEA INSIDE
Spain
A Sogecine and Himenóptero Production
YESTERDAY
South Africa
A Videovision Entertainment Production
Achievement in Makeup
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS (Paramount and DreamWorks) Valli O'Reilly and Bill Corso
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST (Icon and Newmarket) Keith Vanderlaan and Christien Tinsley
THE SEA INSIDE (Fine Line Features and Sogepaq) Jo Allen and Manuel García
Achievement in Music written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax) Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (Warner Bros.) John Williams
LEMONY SNICKET'S A SERIES OF UNFORTUNATE EVENTS (Paramount and DreamWorks) Thomas Newman
THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST (Icon and Newmarket) John Debney
THE VILLAGE (Buena Vista) James Newton Howard
Achievement in Music written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
"Accidentally In Love" from SHREK 2 (DreamWorks)
Music by Adam Duritz, Charles Gillingham, Jim Bogios, David Immergluck, Matthew Mallery and David Bryson
Lyric by Adam Duritz and Daniel Vickrey
"Al Otro Lado Del Río" from THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES
Music and Lyric by Jorge Drexler
(Focus Features and Film Four)
"Believe" from THE POLAR EXPRESS (Warner Bros.)
Music and Lyric by Glen Ballard and Alan Silvestri
"Learn To Be Lonely" from THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA (Warner Bros.)
Music by Andrew Lloyd Webber
Lyric by Charles Hart
"Look To Your Path (Vois Sur Ton Chemin)" from THE CHORUS (Miramax)
Music by Bruno Coulais
Lyric by Christophe Barratier
Best Motion Picture of the Year
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Nominees are still to be determined.
A Forward Pass/Appian Way/IMF Production
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax)
Richard N. Gladstein and Nellie Bellflower, Producers
A FilmColony Production
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Nominees are still to be determined.
A Warner Bros. Pictures Production
RAY (Universal)
Nominees are still to be determined.
A Universal Pictures/Bristol Bay Production
SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
Michael London, Producer
A SIDEWAYS Productions, Inc. Production
Animated Short Film
BIRTHDAY BOY
Sejong Park and Andrew Gregory
An Australian Film, TV and Radio School Production
GOPHER BROKE
Jeff Fowler and Tim Miller
A Blur Studio Production
GUARD DOG
Bill Plympton
A Bill Plympton Production
LORENZO
Mike Gabriel and Baker Bloodworth
A Walt Disney Pictures Production
RYAN
Chris Landreth
A Copper Heart Entertainment & National Film Board of Canada Production
Live Action Short Film
EVERYTHING IN THIS COUNTRY MUST
Gary McKendry
A Six Mile LLC Production
LITTLE TERRORIST
Ashvin Kumar
An Alipur Films Production
7:35 IN THE MORNING
Nacho Vigalondo
An Ibarretxe & Co. Production
TWO CARS, ONE NIGHT
Taika Waititi and Ainsley Gardiner
A Defender Films Limited Production
WASP
Andrea Arnold
A Cowboy Films Production
Achievement in Sound Editing
THE INCREDIBLES (Buena Vista) Michael Silvers and Randy Thom
THE POLAR EXPRESS (Warner Bros.) Randy Thom and Dennis Leonard
SPIDER-MAN 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) Paul N.J. Ottosson
Achievement in Sound Mixing
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.) Tom Fleischman and Petur Hliddal
THE INCREDIBLES (Buena Vista) Randy Thom, Gary A. Rizzo and Doc Kane
THE POLAR EXPRESS (Warner Bros.) Randy Thom, Tom Johnson, Dennis Sands and William B. Kaplan
RAY (Universal) Scott Millan, Greg Orloff, Bob Beemer and Steve Cantamessa
SPIDER-MAN 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Jeffrey J. Haboush and Joseph Geisinger
Achievement in Visual Effects
HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN (Warner Bros.) Roger Guyett, Tim Burke, John Richardson and Bill George
I, ROBOT (20th Century Fox) John Nelson, Andrew R. Jones, Erik Nash and Joe Letteri
SPIDER-MAN 2 (Sony Pictures Releasing) John Dykstra, Scott Stokdyk, Anthony LaMolinara and John Frazier
Adapted Screenplay
BEFORE SUNSET (Warner Independent Pictures)
Screenplay by Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke
Story by Richard Linklater & Kim Krizan
FINDING NEVERLAND (Miramax)
Screenplay by David Magee
MILLION DOLLAR BABY (Warner Bros.)
Screenplay by Paul Haggis
THE MOTORCYCLE DIARIES (Focus Features and Film Four)
Screenplay by José Rivera
SIDEWAYS (Fox Searchlight/20th Century Fox)
Screenplay by Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Original Screenplay
THE AVIATOR (Miramax, Initial Entertainment Group and Warner Bros.)
Written by John Logan
ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND(Focus Features)
Screenplay by Charlie Kaufman
Story by Charlie Kaufman & Michel Gondry & Pierre Bismuth
HOTEL RWANDA (United Artists in association with Lions Gate Entertainment through MGM Distribution Co.)
Written by Keir Pearson & Terry George
THE INCREDIBLES (Buena Vista)
Written by Brad Bird
VERA DRAKE (Fine Line Features, Alain Sarde and UK Film Council in association with Inside Track Films)
Written by Mike Leigh
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